What is Prediction-Market Betting? - Novelty Specials Betting Odds, Tips & Strategies
Here at Stake, there is no shortage of markets for you to place a bet on. All your favourite sporting and Esports action is covered with our extensive range of sports betting options and markets. It’s not just all the biggest and best sports that you can bet on, though.
Prediction-market betting is one of the fastest-growing markets in betting and is quickly becoming a big part of the cultural zeitgeist. In this guide, we’ll look at what prediction markets are, how to bet on them on Stake.com, and a few tips and tricks to keep in mind before you place a bet here at Stake Sportsbook.
History of Prediction-Market Betting
Prediction-market betting is not something new. In fact, before we had data science and market research organisations tracking the probability of big world events, prediction markets were largely formed by pockets of political betting. Traders on Wall Street have been seen betting on elections as far back as the 19th Century.
In the 2024 US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, despite polling data suggesting a Harris victory, political betting markets quickly identified anomalies in public opinion. These markets showed that Trump would again become the US president.
What Are The Most Popular Types of Prediction-Market Bet Topics?
Within prediction-market betting, there are a handful of market topics that have risen to the top in popularity.
Political
We all have our opinions on politics, and it can sometimes feel like we’ve called an outcome well in advance. That’s why political prediction markets are so popular. They give you the opportunity to prove you know better than public opinion polls when it comes to things like presidential elections.
Entertainment
It may seem like there’s not much to bet on in the entertainment world, but that couldn’t be further from the case. There may not be the same jeopardy as federal elections, but the outcome of awards ceremonies is a popular entertainment betting option, as well as specials betting on things like who will play the next James Bond.
Trending Topics/World Events
With this one, there’s a bit of crossover with politics/entertainment betting in that both feature in trending events. However, these kinds of bets can include a wide range of topics. There are even betting options on topics like the likelihood of a US recession.
Interesting Facts about Prediction-Market Betting
If you want to bet on special futures markets, there are a few key facts that make prediction-market betting an interesting option:
Big Pharma companies have used precision markets to analyse which drugs are more likely to pass clinical trials.
Search engine giant Google uses prediction markets to shape their strategy in releasing products and opening offices in new locations.
The very first of the modern blockchain-based prediction markets opened in 2018.
How to Bet on Prediction-Markets
It’s easy to get started with betting on prediction markets at Stake. All you need to do is select Specials from the list of sports markets we offer. That will take you to all the options you have, including futures odds. You can select the topic, election, or event that you want to place a bet on and add your selections to your slip.
Most Popular Prediction-Market Bets & Bet Types
With prediction-market betting on the up and up, there are a number of bet types and specific bets that have become popular. Here’s a breakdown of some of our choice options:
Outrights: If you’ve ever bet on a sport or even read a sports betting guide, you’ll be aware of outright betting. It’s sometimes known as futures betting and refers to selecting an outright winner of an event - in this case, it could be an election or an awards ceremony.
Yes/No: This one is self-explanatory. You have to say whether you think an event will occur or not. For example, will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged this year? If you think they will, you’ll bet on Yes, and if not, you’ll bet on No.
Correct ___: In soccer betting, you’ll have correct scores. Well, in prediction-market betting, you have a similar concept. In this case, it depends on the event. For example, in UK politics, you may be able to bet on the exact number of seats a party will get when there’s a general election.
There are many more prediction-market betting options, including handicap bets, Asian totals, spread bets, and more. It’s worth keeping an eye on specific events to see which bet types are open for that topic.
Prediction-Market Betting Strategies & Tips
As with any form of betting, whether that’s betting on tennis or staking on rugby, there are no certainties in prediction-market betting. However, we’ve come up with a handful of tips we think you can apply for a more enjoyable experience when betting on upcoming events:
Keep updated: You need to be aware of the news when placing these kinds of bets. For example, if you’re staking on something related to exchange-traded markets, like if an asset will reach a certain value, you need to keep an eye on what market makers are doing and saying, real-time analytics, trading volumes, and the current market prices.
Never stop learning: You can use your expertise in all different kinds of betting to apply to prediction-market bets. If you check out our blog, you can find a list of how-to guides that can help you learn how to become a better bettor.
Keep it fun: There’s a reason this kind of bet is known as novelty betting. It’s supposed to be fun. If you no longer feel like you’re having fun placing bets on predictive markets, take a break and step away.
Deposit & Withdrawal Methods for Betting on Prediction-Markets
If you want to take part in betting on predictive markets, all you have to do is make an account with Stake and ensure you have funds in your account. You can use our deposit and withdrawal guides for help with adding funds.
If you want to use a virtual currency for betting, you can use a full list of our accepted crypto. We accept BTC, ETH, USDT, EOS, Doge, LTC, SOL, and TRX, as well as many more. Our crypto exchange guides can help you through the process of using platforms like Moonpay and Swapped.com, and even our integrated Mesh option.
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